Need Friend Advice

[Irulan]

. 1. She realizes she really has a problem and it motivates her to change. 2. It drives her further into misery and drinking. I'm seriously worried that the second one might happen.

well, if #2 does happen - it's not your fault at all. Starfish's advice "You didn't cause it, You cant' control it, You can't cure it" is spot on. (the infamous 3 c's) You are not responsible for her choices, only yours. So you can choose to include her, or not include her. There's absolutely nothing wrong with choosing to not include her. And there's absolutely nothing wrong with taking care of yourself by setting good boundaries.

If it makes her angry: so what, you don't have to take it on.
Ultimately, nothing you do or say will cause a person with a drinking problem to make different choices for themselves. The desire to change has to come from within. In the meantime, you might have to watch a friend self-destruct which could be difficult and painful. There are resources out there for friends and families of alcoholics.