I almost exclusively wear shorts with padding, and tights over. I have one pair of cold-weather tights, and one pair of not-so-cold-weather tights. I also have full length leg warmers, but I don't really like them much because they're pretty sloppy, sag and have unravelly threads here and there.
I have more! knee warmers too, they're handy for those days when it's just a bit too cold for shorts riding in to work, but nice and warm on my way back, and I have one pair of knickers that I got on sale when I was really looking for another pair of shorts. They're my least favourite legwear - as such they're fine, but I find them either too warm or too cold. Some people swear by them.
So my recommendation for my type of weather would be - shorts, then knee warmers, then a pair of unpadded tights, then maybe a pair of warmer tights if needed.
Winter riding is much less about badassery and much more about bundle-uppery. - malkin
1995 Kona Cinder Cone commuterFrankenbike/Selle Italia SLR Lady Gel Flow
2008 white Nakamura Summit Custom mtb/Terry Falcon X
2000 Schwinn Fastback Comp road bike/Specialized Jett