It really depends on your personal needs and risks, and you don't want to be talking about those in a public forum. If you have no pre-existing conditions and no known risk factors, you could take a chance. But if you have any health care utilization now, or any risk factors, add up what it is costing pre-insurance, or what one of those risk factors is likely to cost if it develops. That's the only way you can have a reasonable basis for knowing what to spend. I'm guessing that since you have options at all outside of COBRA before your state exchange goes into effect, you must not have any pre-existings, though.

Also, you can be too poor to qualify for the subsidy. Has your state approved the Medicaid expansion?