Oakleaf, pretty sure you are right. Funny thing (not so funny??) is I had this bike at one of the lbs's and asked them about new tires. The guy (not my normal guy) shrugged and said mine were fine and looked good. I should have gone with my gut feeling and replaced them then.

While I am bummed it happened before my ride - I am very happy it didn't happen during! And about a month out from my big 170 mile ride. Good time for buying new tires.