Another Great Depression?

[Jolt]

Yes, people have been routinely paying 7-10 dollars a gallon for gas in Europe for a long time. Guess what? They have cars that get good gas mileage, they have good public transportation, and they ride their bikes. When are we going to wake up?

That's been my thought...yes it's a pain that gas prices are going up but it may have some positive results. For example, I heard on the news yesterday that Amtrak's ridership has increased quite a bit on the Downeaster line (and probably others as well). This will hopefully result in expanded service making it a more convenient travel option for more trips. One thing I would really love to see would be an Amtrak route into the White Mountains...it would be so much more relaxing to hop on a train rather than having to drive when we want to hike up there!

[GLC1968]

All my money is in a mayonnaise jar on the kitchen counter.
As long as I have my dogs, it's safe.

What if the US dollar isn't worth anything in 2 years? The paper may be safe, but it may be just that...paper.

Water's going to be the big sticking point.

It's easy to learn to grow your own food - even staples aren't TOO terribly hard to thresh, such as many people did when they were panicked about the Y2K bug. And transportation machinery (bicycles, wagons etc.) can last a long time.

Water is another thing. In many parts of the country it's easy enough to build windmills. In other parts, people's water currently comes from as far away as their electricity. (Remember the opening chapter of "Animal, Vegetable, Miracle" on why she decided to move the family back East? And, water was the huge omission from "The Omnivore's Dilemma.")

There used to be a saying "water will be the next oil." Now that we're far enough past peak oil that people are starting to notice, I think we're about to understand that saying.

Very, very true. People can live without comforts but they can't live without water. And we can't grow food without it either, of course.

This is why I find the technology to drive cars on water just laughable. Water is WAY more precious that oil!

[Zen]

What if the US dollar isn't worth anything in 2 years? The paper may be safe, but it may be just that...paper.

Point being, I'm poor now and can't get much poorer.
there's always oragami

[Aggie_Ama]

I figure I will just move to my husband's grandma's ranch and live in a tent. My Mammaw did it when she was 18 and first married, why not? It is hard to think that in 1936 my Mammaw and Pawpaw just threw up a tent and lived in it for about a year. No one does stuff like that now days. They were tough stock.

[Trek420]

No one does stuff like that now days. They were tough stock.

Not to contribute to the general "how'd we get in this handbasket and where's it going" tone but this is what I've been trying to say. Not only is there whatever's going on financialy but some argue that climate change (whether you feel it's a hoax, fad or real) may be the most important challenge the world's known.

In my work at the antique store I talk to a lot of folks. A dozen years ago when I started most of those were this "best generation". Coworkers would shake their heads "oh, I'm so sorry you have to talk to old people all day".

I'm having fun, these folks are great. I'm so impressed. And the stories? Impressive.

Are we up to a task like that? I don't think so

[Aggie_Ama]

In my work at the antique store I talk to a lot of folks. A dozen years ago when I started most of those were this "best generation". Coworkers would shake their heads "oh, I'm so sorry you have to talk to old people all day".

I'm having fun, these folks are great. I'm so impressed. And the stories? Impressive.

Are we up to a task like that? I don't think so

My favorite customer of all time at Lowe's was a man who came in and would tell me "I am A&M Class of 47. Would have been sooner but this little thing called World War II got in the way. I was going to go to Law School but I became a vet and I was okay at that. The dogs were nice co-workers." I always liked the elderly people at Lowe's a great deal more than the 30-50 crowd that is for sure.

I never get tired of hearing my 90 year old Mammaw and my husband's 80 year old Oma talk about being teens in rural hill country. Those two women could take care of cattle, kill a snake, skin a critter, grow an entire salad and mend your britches. I cannot do one of those things.

[Trek420]

My favorite customer of all time at Lowe's was a man who came in and would tell me "I am A&M Class of 47. Would have been sooner but this little thing called World War II got in the way. I was going to go to Law School but I became a vet and I was okay at that. The dogs were nice co-workers." I always liked the elderly people at Lowe's a great deal more than the 30-50 crowd that is for sure.

That's one of the things I noticed about this generation. Maybe it was the GI bill but they seem more educated. This is a generation that went to war, came back and went to school . Regardless of which socks you wear we are not doing right for our vets.

And the reward of the GI bill was a generation of veterenarians, etc. That was an investment that paid rich rewards as education always does.

[Zen]

I could actually afford T-Bills!
http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-bud...tash-Your-Cash
Hey, it's better than nothing.

[mimitabby]

Yes, when the European union began, I went to Italy and bought some euro's. They were 50 cents each. Now they are worth $1.50 each. Our money is worth less and less on a world level. Between that and the ridiculous prices we pay for medicine, it really is harder and harder for us to survive. Get healthy! ride your bike!! then you won't need as much medicine. That's our plan anyway!

[tulip]

Those two women could take care of cattle, kill a snake, skin a critter, grow an entire salad and mend your britches. I cannot do one of those things.

Well, I can do all that except skin a critter. That is, assuming cattle are similar to horses and goats. But my Joy of Cooking (1974 edition) has illustrated instructions on how to skin a squirrel, so I could probably learn if I had to. But I'd rather clean a fish.

[Zen]

I reckon I'd have to live in a commune and let someone else do the skinning

[Mr. Bloom]

Again, I want to add some perspective here relating to the original question.

In the last 30 years, 3,006 banks failed in America. Of course, the failures were clustered about the late 80's and early 90's. The median bank size in that period (not indexed for inflation) was about $56million. Big failures were rare...and will also be rare today. The failures then were caused by three primary things:
- fraud in the early 80's by a Tennessee banker named Jake Butcher
- the oil crash of the late 80's affecting Texas banks
- the real estate crash and recession caused by Desert Storm and the credit crunch.
But, the banking industry survived and came out stronger from the experience.

We may have a recession (depending on how you define that), we will have more bank failures, and we will have uncertainty.

BUT, we have a lot going right and there's no need for panic.

Back to a prediction that I made in a previous thread, our current circumstances, what I anticipate gov't policy response to our current situation, will breed a renewal of inflation pressures unlike what we've seen in nearly 30 years. If we can get out of the business of policing the world, balance the budget, and become productive again, then we have hope.


Finally, there are plenty of ways for people with more than $100,000 to have more FDIC insurance without having to spread it out over several banks. For instance, retire account deposits are insured for $250,000 (a fact that many people don't know....) and there are ways to title accounts that increase the effective amount of insurance coverage

[smilingcat]

Dear Mr. Silver,

Thank you for your link. It doesn't do me any good though.

Is this reasoning more or less accurate as to Wachovia's stock price activity today.

Wall street estimates had Wachovia to lose around $2-2.5 Billion for this quarter. Their earning came out with stated loss in excess of $8.0 Billion. A far cry from the expected. Also they've cut their divident down to 5cents (right move) and their stock jumped around 28% on the news.

So is my assumption correct to say that Wachovia decided to bundle their loss (write-downs) into shortest time span so as to not have a negative report for too many quarters. Meaning they decided to lump the losses together and limit the bad reporting to one or two quarter(s) so that subsequent quarter reports would look good. Reporting going forward then would make it look like Wachovia is over their financial trouble. And this aggressive move makes it a darling on wall street? 28% gain one day is one of the biggest I've ever seen. I just don't have the time to read the 10k reports.

And what about reports of federal regulators making un-announced visit to Wachovia headquarters. Or is this false information?

And what is the difference between Wachovia and WaMu. Besides Mooney threatening a downgrade of WaMu. WaMu reported a loss of only $3Billion or so. And their stock price is in a range where I don't want to touch all that much.

Your thoughts as a banker is of great interest to me.

Thank you,
Smilingcat

[Mr. Bloom]

The link simply shows that there is a way for normal people to achieve greater than $100,000 in FDIC insurance just in how they title their accounts.

I'll PM some responses to your other questions.

[tulip]

Gotta agree with Mr. Silver on this. Yes, it's an adjustment, but things were so far out of whack the other way for a while...remember? Did we get so comfy we thought that was normal? Shame on us!