Quote Originally Posted by slinkedog
The year Greg Lemond won on the final stage, the final stage was a time trial. As far as I know (without doing any research), a lead has never been lost when the final stage went into Paris.
I don't think the final stage has ever been a TT. The final stage is very ceremonial in Paris, with the about 50k circuit around the Champs Elysees for max ceremony and sponsor time. Crowds line the streets 5 and 6 deep, all chanting and singing.

1989 Greg Lemond beat Laurent Fignon by 8 seconds--for the whole Tour. That's coming in 8 seconds faster than Fignon after more than 2200 miles, pretty amazing. Lemond made up the time in the TT before the last stage, much like this year. Team tactics come into play--it is very difficult for the front guys to break away when the lead guy's team doesn't let him. The peleton goes alot faster than a single break, that's why you hear about the peleton "reeling in" the break away groups.

So it would be very difficult for Landis to lose, but if he has a mechanical breakdown or a crash, well that might be different. His team would do all they could to slow down the two Spaniards who are in 2nd and 3rd, though.

Not to worry, though. There are plenty of primes, and it's a big deal to win the final stage, so there's always a good sprint at the end, sometimes with big crashes. I was in Paris and saw the final stage crash the year that Indurain first won.

I hope that helps explain things a bit. In short, Phonak will not let the other guys break away tomorrow, thereby protecting Floyd's lead and victory.