The Future of Biking? (urban/commuter)

[DebW]

Grog, I liked your post. I'm voting you the next bike designer for (pick your favorite company), and then the practical commuter bike will be a reality.

Having been around a long time and been involved in the industry back in the 70s, I have trouble distinguishing true innovation from fads. Any industry with a product to market makes changes every year - partly so that people think that their old product is no longer good enough and want to buy a new one. People used to be happy with 10 speeds on a bicycle - now it takes 30. Yes, 30 is better than 10 on some level, but the price is super-narrow chains that wear out in 6 months. People used to learn how to shift their derailleurs and center their own gears - now everything is indexed so you either can't miss or you can't get it right (and have to go back to the LBS for an adjustment). Bikes have gotten so specialized that there is a specialty that is a hybrid of every other pair of specialties (for those who can't decide which specialty they want?). I really think that some of these trends will reverse themselves in time, with bike parts made to last (maybe they'll go back to 8 or 9 speeds), and fewer models in the product line. There have been alot of really worthwhile innovation that make bikes lighter, stronger, and easier to use (but never cheaper). I don't think that any of these things have much influence on someone buying their first bike, but they make people want that 2nd and 3rd and 4th and 5th bike. And by upgrading products and discontinuing parts for older lines, they force people to give up that perfectly good 20 year old bike.

I sold bikes in 1973 during the height of the bike boom. We didn't have to work to sell bikes - people walked in the door and wrote a check 30 minutes later. We put in 80 hour weeks just to meet the demand. And it had nothing to do with the marketing. It was the energy crisis. As gas prices get higher, we may have another bike boom, and people will buy whatever is available. But the company who hires Grog will have a competitive advantage. Trek made a great point that what matters in the long run is that people keep riding those bikes, not because it's a fad, but because it's healthy, enjoyable, and good for the environment. And it up to us, not a manufacturing company, to make that happen.

[mimitabby]

Deb, aren't we having a bike boom right now?

[DebW]

Deb, aren't we having a bike boom right now?

I don't work in the bike industry now, so maybe I shouldn't try to answer that. Sales may be up somewhat, but I don't think this compares with 1973. In 1973, there were lines at gas stations and genuine shortages of gas in the US. Now the prices are high, but people are so affluent that the price doesn't matter that much, and we haven't had real shortages. When bike shops have trouble keeping inventory on hand, then I'll believe that we're in a bike boom.

[Kathi]

Bike Boom? The normal delivery time on a Serotta custom frame is 6 weeks. Mine is due to be shipped today???? It was ordered in mid April. So that makes the delivery time closer to 11 weeks. Serotta normally makes 14 bikes a day, they're doing 18 a day and still have a backlog.

I'm being told that entire industry is having the same woes due to shortages in materials and increased orders of bikes. According to and article this week in the Denver Post bikes sales are up 14% this year.

Personally, I'd rather have a well built, light bicycle with good quality components to tool around on. Much easier on the the body and lessens the worry about something going wrong.

BTW, here in Colorado, Bike to Work day was Wednesday, they expected 20,000 riders!

[RoadRaven]

I think a bicycle boom will be inevitable... even in "life after lance"

Unless some replacement technology is allowed to surface to deal with the un-viability (I don't think thats a word ) of oil-based cars, people will look to commuting in alternate ways.

The cost of bikes unfortunately will rise I imagine, particularly in countries like mine where the cost of importing them (which involves much transport/fuel) will inevitably be reflected.

But already, at my work place, they are beginnning planning to make it a more bike friendly environment with things like bike access, and secure "parking" for bikes etc etc

In NZ the bike shops stock middle and entry level bikes... most of our top end racing bikes we have bought from shops (that is, not from other cyclists) have to be ordered in - or the specific parts they want ordered in. The bike shops, while some wanting to cater for the "elite and pretty" bikes now that their bread and butter is the less expensive, non-racing bikes. They know that the person they sold an entry level road or mtn bike to is a potential to upgrade and upgrade.

I am sooooooo looking forward to seeing more and more bikes on the road. I like cars - but only on cold, wet days. Otherwise i would choose to bike every time if I could.

[Geonz]

I know our LBS is selling more bikes this year, and I know I am seeing more of them. I wish people could see the limitations of ethanol & biodiesel, etc... and the genuine value of cycling for a host of reasons.

It's really hard to find a bike designed for commuting - but there isn't enough of a commuting culture (it's a bit of a vicious circle). THey're as much a niche item as tandems or recumbents. I don't know that most people go into bike shops looking for commuters - it's a pretty huge lifestyle change. I think they go in imagining "biking around" and perhaps doing the odd errand. Fair-weather recreational riding vs. errand-running that verges on commuting... there are some real differences.

I do think he hasn't *really* checked out bike shops. THere are tons of entry-level bikes going out the doors. THe bike manufacturers know this. I dream of them being more proactive and steering things away from cars .. I can dream, can't I?

I do think the media and the business people are treating this gas increas ***much*** differently than the previous one. I don't read or hear about energy conserving alternatives - no, the PWB are jumping up and down and pushing "new" versions of the same stuff; the message is that we can't do without our massive energy intake, that that's a given and we have to work with it. Back in 1973, people were willing to consider making changes to conserve. (I think the *People* are still willing, but we are followers.)

[mimitabby]

What i don't have a historical sense about is how come motorists have gotten so nasty and antagonistic towards bicyclists!
In some countries (Italy) you will find motorists cheering you on because you're on a bike. They'd no sooner threaten a bicyclist than they would a grandmother toddling across the street with her walker. But here?
We have a thread enumerating the garbage that folks throw AT bicyclists.
I just can't get my head around it.

[KnottedYet]

Here are the kind of bikes Grog is talking about:

http://www.konaworld.com/shopping_ca...4&parentid=253

http://www.rei.com/online/store/Prod...ory_rn=4502048

This is the sort of bike we need to see more of, and with a lower price over all.

I actually thought the Bianchi commuter/low end bikes were pretty nice. And the Kona and REI bikes don't weigh all that much. They don't have suspensions, either.

I agree with Grog, department store bikes are NOT commuter material. If you read the excellent article by Dan Koeppel (Invisible Riders) in the December 05 issue of Bicycling, he does go a bit into the market forces that shape the heavy, stupid, goofy suspension, poseur bikes sold at department stores.

[Grog]

I agree with Grog, department store bikes are NOT commuter material. If you read the excellent article by Dan Koeppel (Invisible Riders) in the December 05 issue of Bicycling, he does go a bit into the market forces that shape the heavy, stupid, goofy suspension, poseur bikes sold at department stores.

Thanks for pointing to this article. It was a really good one I think...