Grog, I liked your post. I'm voting you the next bike designer for (pick your favorite company), and then the practical commuter bike will be a reality.

Having been around a long time and been involved in the industry back in the 70s, I have trouble distinguishing true innovation from fads. Any industry with a product to market makes changes every year - partly so that people think that their old product is no longer good enough and want to buy a new one. People used to be happy with 10 speeds on a bicycle - now it takes 30. Yes, 30 is better than 10 on some level, but the price is super-narrow chains that wear out in 6 months. People used to learn how to shift their derailleurs and center their own gears - now everything is indexed so you either can't miss or you can't get it right (and have to go back to the LBS for an adjustment). Bikes have gotten so specialized that there is a specialty that is a hybrid of every other pair of specialties (for those who can't decide which specialty they want?). I really think that some of these trends will reverse themselves in time, with bike parts made to last (maybe they'll go back to 8 or 9 speeds), and fewer models in the product line. There have been alot of really worthwhile innovation that make bikes lighter, stronger, and easier to use (but never cheaper). I don't think that any of these things have much influence on someone buying their first bike, but they make people want that 2nd and 3rd and 4th and 5th bike. And by upgrading products and discontinuing parts for older lines, they force people to give up that perfectly good 20 year old bike.

I sold bikes in 1973 during the height of the bike boom. We didn't have to work to sell bikes - people walked in the door and wrote a check 30 minutes later. We put in 80 hour weeks just to meet the demand. And it had nothing to do with the marketing. It was the energy crisis. As gas prices get higher, we may have another bike boom, and people will buy whatever is available. But the company who hires Grog will have a competitive advantage. Trek made a great point that what matters in the long run is that people keep riding those bikes, not because it's a fad, but because it's healthy, enjoyable, and good for the environment. And it up to us, not a manufacturing company, to make that happen.