The Future of Biking? (urban/commuter)

[Grog]

I also tend to think that the mass of the industry is indeed in the low-end bikes, but I also think that that too much emphasis is put on racing bikes and too little on touring bikes... But that's not only from bike companies, I think it's also if not mostly from cyclists, because we much prefer to have our gear carried in a supported ride than carry our own in panniers. Maybe we're sissies, that's right, and I'm the first of them. (But I have been thinking about a touring bike...)

However, I must disagree with you a bit KY: these bikes are NOT commuter bikes. Commuter bikes would be: light, come with fenders (and maybe even panniers) and lights (for night riding), have robust wheels, an integrated locking mechanism, etc. It would also be at a decent price (maybe below $400?). Innovative design would bring improvements I can't even think of right now. (Like it has in racing bikes...) The mass of the market is made of bulky hybrids and pseudo-mountain bikes with heavy and cheaply made suspensions. These bikes are not made for going anywhere, they are made to ride around the block, not for a 10-mile commute. Or, worse, taken somewhere in a car and ridden a bit on a cycling path. You need a SUV for that because if you are a small person they are way too heavy to put on the roof-rack of a small car. (There are some exceptions... I loved my Trek 7100. Still certainly not light enough to be a commuter bike.)

Of course, some brave people commute on them. That's quite impressive. But poor design (which again is in part driven by consumers who want flashy suspension for example even if all they will do is ride the bike path) is also what will prevent the vast majority of new owners of entry-level bikes from using their bikes for commuting.

[Trek420]

My $0.02 is: anything that gets them on the bike. Has the Tour de Lance raised awareness of cycling in the US? Do more people ride? Does that benefit me? Yes.

The industry is trying to sell bikes, that's what industry does. I really don't care how they do that, they can put tit* (ot other parts) on the front of bikes for all I care, just get 'em on a bike.

Does it make sense for Joe/Joan Q Public to commute on a Maddona? Probably not. But it's up to us, the community to keep them on the bike.

That starts at the shop asking "what kind of riding do you want to do?"

But sometimes we have to educate the public on rides, at work (a coworker just came to my desk to ask about getting his first bike).

The American public anyway wants the illusion of speed and power, they want the SUV even though we never go off road, they want what Lance rides for a 2 mile commute, they want FS even though they never go off road.

I say just get them on a bike, any bike. We here in bike clubs, TE...just catching them "look the Madona, that's for our training, touring, the charity ride, let's get you this...and a helmet....and the helmet goes this way"

What's with all the riders with helmets on backwards?

[DebW]

Grog, I liked your post. I'm voting you the next bike designer for (pick your favorite company), and then the practical commuter bike will be a reality.

Having been around a long time and been involved in the industry back in the 70s, I have trouble distinguishing true innovation from fads. Any industry with a product to market makes changes every year - partly so that people think that their old product is no longer good enough and want to buy a new one. People used to be happy with 10 speeds on a bicycle - now it takes 30. Yes, 30 is better than 10 on some level, but the price is super-narrow chains that wear out in 6 months. People used to learn how to shift their derailleurs and center their own gears - now everything is indexed so you either can't miss or you can't get it right (and have to go back to the LBS for an adjustment). Bikes have gotten so specialized that there is a specialty that is a hybrid of every other pair of specialties (for those who can't decide which specialty they want?). I really think that some of these trends will reverse themselves in time, with bike parts made to last (maybe they'll go back to 8 or 9 speeds), and fewer models in the product line. There have been alot of really worthwhile innovation that make bikes lighter, stronger, and easier to use (but never cheaper). I don't think that any of these things have much influence on someone buying their first bike, but they make people want that 2nd and 3rd and 4th and 5th bike. And by upgrading products and discontinuing parts for older lines, they force people to give up that perfectly good 20 year old bike.

I sold bikes in 1973 during the height of the bike boom. We didn't have to work to sell bikes - people walked in the door and wrote a check 30 minutes later. We put in 80 hour weeks just to meet the demand. And it had nothing to do with the marketing. It was the energy crisis. As gas prices get higher, we may have another bike boom, and people will buy whatever is available. But the company who hires Grog will have a competitive advantage. Trek made a great point that what matters in the long run is that people keep riding those bikes, not because it's a fad, but because it's healthy, enjoyable, and good for the environment. And it up to us, not a manufacturing company, to make that happen.

[mimitabby]

Deb, aren't we having a bike boom right now?

[DebW]

Deb, aren't we having a bike boom right now?

I don't work in the bike industry now, so maybe I shouldn't try to answer that. Sales may be up somewhat, but I don't think this compares with 1973. In 1973, there were lines at gas stations and genuine shortages of gas in the US. Now the prices are high, but people are so affluent that the price doesn't matter that much, and we haven't had real shortages. When bike shops have trouble keeping inventory on hand, then I'll believe that we're in a bike boom.

[Kathi]

Bike Boom? The normal delivery time on a Serotta custom frame is 6 weeks. Mine is due to be shipped today???? It was ordered in mid April. So that makes the delivery time closer to 11 weeks. Serotta normally makes 14 bikes a day, they're doing 18 a day and still have a backlog.

I'm being told that entire industry is having the same woes due to shortages in materials and increased orders of bikes. According to and article this week in the Denver Post bikes sales are up 14% this year.

Personally, I'd rather have a well built, light bicycle with good quality components to tool around on. Much easier on the the body and lessens the worry about something going wrong.

BTW, here in Colorado, Bike to Work day was Wednesday, they expected 20,000 riders!

[RoadRaven]

I think a bicycle boom will be inevitable... even in "life after lance"

Unless some replacement technology is allowed to surface to deal with the un-viability (I don't think thats a word ) of oil-based cars, people will look to commuting in alternate ways.

The cost of bikes unfortunately will rise I imagine, particularly in countries like mine where the cost of importing them (which involves much transport/fuel) will inevitably be reflected.

But already, at my work place, they are beginnning planning to make it a more bike friendly environment with things like bike access, and secure "parking" for bikes etc etc

In NZ the bike shops stock middle and entry level bikes... most of our top end racing bikes we have bought from shops (that is, not from other cyclists) have to be ordered in - or the specific parts they want ordered in. The bike shops, while some wanting to cater for the "elite and pretty" bikes now that their bread and butter is the less expensive, non-racing bikes. They know that the person they sold an entry level road or mtn bike to is a potential to upgrade and upgrade.

I am sooooooo looking forward to seeing more and more bikes on the road. I like cars - but only on cold, wet days. Otherwise i would choose to bike every time if I could.

[Geonz]

I know our LBS is selling more bikes this year, and I know I am seeing more of them. I wish people could see the limitations of ethanol & biodiesel, etc... and the genuine value of cycling for a host of reasons.

It's really hard to find a bike designed for commuting - but there isn't enough of a commuting culture (it's a bit of a vicious circle). THey're as much a niche item as tandems or recumbents. I don't know that most people go into bike shops looking for commuters - it's a pretty huge lifestyle change. I think they go in imagining "biking around" and perhaps doing the odd errand. Fair-weather recreational riding vs. errand-running that verges on commuting... there are some real differences.

I do think he hasn't *really* checked out bike shops. THere are tons of entry-level bikes going out the doors. THe bike manufacturers know this. I dream of them being more proactive and steering things away from cars .. I can dream, can't I?

I do think the media and the business people are treating this gas increas ***much*** differently than the previous one. I don't read or hear about energy conserving alternatives - no, the PWB are jumping up and down and pushing "new" versions of the same stuff; the message is that we can't do without our massive energy intake, that that's a given and we have to work with it. Back in 1973, people were willing to consider making changes to conserve. (I think the *People* are still willing, but we are followers.)