...is still a lot of money.

I think this is one of those decisions that only *you* can make (although I think the group here will be happy to support you if you go with the 5200 ).

I work PT at a Trek dealer. I tend to think of the 1000, 1200, and 1500 as "entry level" road bikes. A bike to start out on and see how much one enjoys riding.

From reading your profile (3+ years riding and planning to ride a Century this year) it looks like your already *know* you love riding. This will NOT be a bike that hangs, unloved and unused, in the garage

IF you can comfortably swing the price, I don't think you would be disappointed with the 5200. I could see you riding the 1500 for a year or two, and then as your mileage increases, looking to upgrade. If you buy the 5200 now it will probably serve you well for 5+ years.

p.s. the "new" carbon-fiber bikes are quite light AND stiff. The material damps road vibration w/o noticeable lateral flex.