Ha! I had that same spreadsheet and I'm sure it's still tucked away on a computer somewhere in my possession!
You are right in that it is very hard to know what is right until you've kind of ridden 'wrong'. In fact, as much as I wish I didn't have to have gone through my first two bikes, I'm glad I rode both of them for the experience. I was kind of like you in that I'd been riding a mountain bike and I was already fit, so really all the road bikes I tried felt so good that it was hard to tell. My first bike felt a tiny bit too big from the get-go, but it was still such a great improvement over the mountain bike that I didn't really think about it too much. I still rode it for my first year and about 3000 miles before moving on. Then I had a bike that was fit to me and ordered special and it was a huge improvement over the first bike. But I found that I couldn't stop shopping around. Honestly, I thought that was normal and just part of the territory of road biking...you are always lusting over the next thing! Turns out, I was wrong.
But you are 100% right in that it's extremely hard to just 'know' without the experience to base it on. So my advice is to just do the best you can now and accept that as you grow as a cyclist, your needs may change and that's ok. Bikes can be resold, so don't feel like this HAS to be the last bike you ever buy (as much as you may want it to be!). In fact, that may be a really good reason to not go with custom right out of the gate. It might be easier to re-sell a not custom bike if you do change your mind (and why not save a few pennies?).
Whatever you decide, best of luck with it! And welcome to the fold!![]()




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