If you're out of shape right now, I wouldn't focus too much on speed right now. Instead, focus on building a solid aerobic base. Try to stay well within a comfortable aerobic zone, i.e., not anaerobic. If you can't maintain a conversation without getting overly breathless, bring it down a notch or two. If you're using a heartrate monitor, stay within 70 percent of max. I would recommend focusing on this for a couple of months. After that, you can start building in some speed and hill work and allowing yourself to go anaerobic. I know it probably sounds sort of boring and tedious, but your body (and cardiovascular system) will love you for it.
I spent a winter doing just this when I first started riding. Boy, did I hit the ground running come spring.
Live with intention. Walk to the edge. Listen hard. Practice wellness. Play with abandon. Laugh. Choose with no regret. Continue to learn. Appreciate your friends. Do what you love. Live as if this is all there is.
--Mary Anne Radmacher