I always use the Livestrong site to track, and I have found that the calories they estimate I've burned are higher than what my HRM monitor tells me. Therefore I go by my HRM (I recently bought the polar Fit7 womens, which is very easy to use). I just use the manual entry feature to input the cals burned that way. From what I have read, its hard to get anything to estimate it perfectly, since your personal metabolism is a big variable. I also agree that while you need to eat more on days you workout more intensely, you don't need to eat everything you burn (also remember these programs aren't subtracting out the cals you would have burned at rest), so I actually set my target cals lower than I really want them to be, which just works out better for me psychologically. I'll eat what they recommend on days I work out, but eat a little more than what they recommend on days I don't, but I don't feel pushed to eat more than I need like I did when I had the target set higher. But, then I do track my real net cals in a spreadsheet, and each week average them. I also average my weekly first morning weights, and use those numbers to see how I am doing. I also find it depends on the exercise. If I am going for a 4 hour bike ride, obviously my caloric needs are very different from a day I go to the gym and burn 400 cals on a machine in a 45 min. workout.
I struggled a lot with my weight when I was younger, and for me the biggest thing was finding out I have impaired glucose tolerance and switching to a high protein/low carb diet, and also being treated for hypothyroidism. Since then, I have been able to lose my excess weight, and keep it off, and do find the livestrong site very helpful. So include some medical checks on your to do list. Also, when you say you are 10-15 lb overweight, according to who/what? If you have a high lean body mass, maybe you aren't that overweight, and that is why your body wants to maintain. Try to get your body fat measured, and use that info. to come up with a realistic but healthy weight for you. I find once I got my hormones in order and started eating foods my body could metabolize in the right amounts, my body weight pretty much normalized. I only gain weight if I break the rules, and start to eat foods I can't handle like carbs.



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