About 5 years ago, I missed my goal by 99 miles. Although I was riding indoors, etc. I didn't count any of that. I was upset, so I understand, but I am much more relaxed about my goals now. So, while I have reached my goals each year since, I scaled back a bit for a couple of years, because I didn't want to disappoint myself. This year I set an "acceptable" goal and a "reach" goal. I have achieved both, with time to spare, so now I know what I am capable of. But, I have to say, weather played a big part in this. It was warm and dry this year.