So after reading your posts, I went back this morning and tried all three sweaters on again in the daylight, over Icebreaker tops in 320 and 190 weight. And yeah, I think that after all the Carrie in M is too big. It felt comfortable because it's loose, but you can see the arms are too big and the bottom hem stands away from my hips. Still thinking about the Shak -- I may wait till a friend visits and gives me an outside opinion.
Re Ibex sizing in general, yeah, it does seem to vary a bit. My Ibex Backcountry pants feel half a size bigger than my Ibex Loose Tights, which themselves run a bit loose, while Ibex underwear fits well. Overall I find Ibex slightly looser than Icebreaker.