Quote Originally Posted by withm View Post
BUT, many people make this mistake, and bear with me since I have not seen your particular forecast: 100% chance of rain does NOT mean rain 100% of the day. It means that on 100% of the days with the similar meteorlogical (that is prob not spelled right) conditions it will probably rain for some PART of the day. So all may not be lost YET.
Good luck.
This is sooo very true!!! It took me several years into PhD in statistics to unravel the mistery of statements "30% of rain tomorrow". It actually means exactly as withm said:
In the past, when there were similar weather conditions (notice the word similar; what is exactly similar weather condition? right here is where the problem starts), on 30% of those days was some rain (some rain = only part of a day, could be only 10 min) somewhere in the area the percentage is referring to (in my case that would be somewhere in NYC).

That immediately puts into a perspective the weather forecast, doesn't it? 100% of the rain in NYC pretty much means that almost certainly there will be at least one drop somewhere in NYC. But that could be it. Or not... and that is why 50% of nailed weather forecast is considered a huge success in their business