Elk:
you wouldn't think it, but 4cm makes a BIG difference. I can definitely tell the difference just between 38s and 40s, and find 38s more comfortable. My old bike came stock with 42s, and they were very awkward for me -- much too large. Don't compromise on size just because Sierra has a good deal... you'll regret it.
As to the ability to adjust the bar in the stem (rolling it up or down) -- yes, you can compensate with this a little bit, but there's a fairly small range of bar angles that put both the tops and the drops at comfortable angles, so don't count on being to make up too much.
I don't think your adjustable stem is going to address the potential issue of limited hood adjustability, because the problem isn't the actual height of the bars/hoods (from the ground, or relative to your saddle, or whatever), but the angle they put your wrist in at a given placement.
If it's any consolation I obsessed endlessly about which bars and which stem to get for my new bike.




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