I think the cost of the LED "bulbs" to replace the incandescent one runs anywhere from $20 to $50 a piece. You do get a saving if you can amortize over their 10 to 20 year life span. If you were to include the savings from reduced electricity usage, it will pay back much quicker.
15W LED is about equivalent to 100W light bulb. so assume 20W instead of 15W to be conservative.
(100%-20%) x 100W x 6 hrs/day x 365 days = 344kw-hours of saving per year.
6 hrs/day x 365 days = 2190 hours. Regular bulb on average only last 800 hours. You would need 2.7 light bulbs per year.
Over the 10 year life span you would save 3440kw-hours per bulb and not have to replace 27 regular bulbs. Yes it will more than pay for itself over the 10 year period. and how many tons of CO2??
Now the problem isn't so much the LED bulbs themselves. It's the electronics that will burn out prematurely. I have several CFLs where the elctronics burnt out in 2 year timespan. never mind the bulb or the 5 to 10 year life expectancy. And do you have any electronic gizmos lasting 10 years or more? I can't think of any in my house.
The new high powered LEDs are just coming to market so it will be another 6 month before we will start to see them anywhere. The new white LEDs are so much more pleasing to the eye, it will be worth the wait. For now use screw based CFL. LED bulbs should have the screw base when they become available for retrofit. So not to worry about designing them in now.
Hope this helps.
Smilingcat



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