Barb -
If you're used to thinking about packing for backpacking you should be all set. The downside to bigger panniers is just what you thought - that you can fit more stuff in them and that you may then end up carrying more than you need.
I started in the world of touring by using panniers, then I bought a Bike Friday and started using a trailer. I actually prefer the trailer for fully loaded touring (or if I have to fly to my tour!), but there are still trips where I will use panniers. In fact, I'm trying to plan a long weekend trip in Maine where I will be using only my front panniers (they're smaller than the rear panniers) mounted on the rear rack. It will be a B&B and hotel trip, so I definitely don't need as much stuff.
Emily is definitely right about using front & rear panniers on fully loaded trips as opposed to putting all of the weight on the back of the bike. I've also heard that more of the weight should go in the front - but it never ends up that way for me. (Although I met another person out touring who only used front panniers. He said he liked the handling of the bike better than with just rear panniers. Guess we're all different!)
You might find my PanniersOrTrailer.crazyguyonabike.com article useful.
Do you have plans for your first tour?
--- Denise



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