I would NIX that proclamation about the average. Around here, if they tell me they'll average 16, then I'd better be able to hold 18 for most of the ride. YMMV of course, but bike culture I've mixed with has a very, very strong tendency to "aw shucks, we don't go that fast" and then have that adrenaline/competition thing happen.
This happens a *little* bit less on our slower-paced rides, but every year we battle "mid season pace creep."
What's it mean? Don't be discouraged- keep riding.
I got a lot stronger with intervals, but I didn't have a recipe. I added 1 mph or 2 mph to my speed and tried to hold onto it until it was hard for a while (I'd try to do 100 x my waltz count that comes from doing bilateral breathing in swimming... somehow it's less boring if I have a rhythm with a dominant beat... ONE two three...) and then relax for ... 'til I almost got my breath back. We have roads on the grid, so I'd kinda keep an eye on how fast I went for each mile -- but I don't really compare one day or one mile to the next seriously. Just "go a little harder for a while... okay, for ten seconds longer than you want to, get to breathing hard!"





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