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  1. #16
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Troutdale, OR
    Posts
    2,600
    When math becomes counter-intuitive, I get to hate it.

    Statistics always drove me bananers... Classic problem is "Lets make a deal" problem. Three doors to pick your winning. Hopefully, the one you pick is the winner and not the dud. You pick one of three doors and Monty shows you one of the losers. And he asks "do you want to switch or stay with the door you chose?" The question is should you switch or stay with your original choice? does it make a difference?

    Ans: If you stay with your original decision, your chance of winning is only 1/3. If you switch, your chance of winning goes up to 1/2 or is it 2/3.

    go figure...

    I went over this with people who have graduate degrees in semiconductor physics from Cal Tech, Stanford and other elite schools. It took a while before they realized yes its better to switch.
    Last edited by smilingcat; 05-07-2011 at 10:40 AM. Reason: on second thought it may be 2/3 and not 1/2

 

 

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