I think Amanda is pretty close... Contador has been formally advised of the Spanish commission's decision, and there's a 10-day cooling off period before their decision is formally and publicly announced. Running concurrently with that is a 30-day period in which Contador can appeal the decision. If he appeals, based on what happened in the Landis case and others, it will take a little over two years to finalize things.

On the record book, Schleck will be listed as the "official" winner of the 2010 tour, just like Pereiro is the "official" winner for 2006. But if you ask the person on the street who won the Tour in 2006, the chances are about 9 out of 10 they'll say, "2006? Oh yeah, that's the year that Floyd won the Tour and then got busted for doping." Probably the same thing will happen to Andy; his name will go in the record books with an asterisk beside it, and what most folks will remember is "2010, yeah, Contador won that one, but then he got busted for doping." Contador's new team manager, Bjarne Riis, won the Tour way back in 1996 and then a couple of years ago admitted that he was doping then, but just didn't get caught.

Is Contador's bust legit? I'm inclined to think so. First of all, from idle observation there seems to be a strong cult of doping among the Spanish pros... quite a few of them getting caught over the past few years, and then there's this "Operation Puerto" thing hanging out there. Contador was one of the riders implicated in Puerto -- though not much ever came of it -- so this is likely not the first time the boy has been playing with matches.

Hopefully Andy will have good form this year, and a derned good team behind him, and will stay unhurt so that he can come back to the Tour and win the jersey, trophy, and all the bragging rights that really make up the win.