Many thanks go to Sadie Kate for forwarding me a copy of a study done at University of Tennessee to investigate the accuracy of the Polar OwnCal. OwnCal is Polar's method for estimating how many calories you burned during an exercise and to my knowledge they use this same method on all of their heart rate monitors.
A brief summary of the article can be found here. If you have access to online journals or libraries, here is the citation reference for the article:
CROUTER, S. E., C. ALBRIGHT, and D. R. BASSETT, JR. Accuracy of Polar S410 Heart Rate Monitor to Estimate Energy Cost of Exercise. Med. Sci. Sports Exerc., Vol. 36, No. 8, pp. 1433-1439, 2004.
What they did:
First they wanted to see how accurate Polar's predicted max VO2 and max heartrate predictions are. When you're setting up your Polar HRM it will give you suggested VO2max and HRmax numbers that are based on typical values for men and women, based on your age, height, and weight. The study measured the participants max VO2 and max heartrate by putting the guinea pigs onto treadmills and drawing blood to measure lactic acid concentrations.
Once they had measured the "true" VO2 and max HR, they set each guinea pig up with two HRMs. One HRM was configured with Polar's predicted HRM/VO2max, and the other HRM was configured with the actual HRM/VO2max that they had determined in the first part. They had the guinea pigs do different activities (treadmill, stationary bike, rowing machine) at different intensity levels, and evaluated all of the data.
What they found:
For men, the predicted VO2max was pretty close to the actual measured values. The predicted calories burned during exercise was also fairly accurate. If a man uses the Polar predicted VO2max to figure calories burned it will be about 2% off. If a man sets up the Polar with an actual measured VO2max value, it will be about 4% off.
For women, the Polar HRM predicted VO2max are not as accurate. VO2max was overestimated by 10.9mL/kg x min on average. If a woman uses the Polar predicted VO2max to estimate calories burned, it will be off by 33%. If a woman sets up the Polar with an actual measured VO2max value, it will be about 12% too high.
The ability to input your own custom VO2max and HR seems to be available only in the S-series Polar watches.
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My bottom line: Until I can afford a fancy visit to a sports medicine clinic to get my personal VO2max numbers measured, I think I'll just divide OwnCal calories burned number by 1.33. If I get that fancy visit and know my actual VO2max, I will divide divide OwnCal calories burned number by 1.12.
I know that using a HR monitor is still more accurate than the vague formulas out there where you plug in your weight, speed on bike, etc because it takes into account actual energy spent. You could be going faster and burning less calories due to tailwinds or going slower but burning more calories due to headwinds. A HRM is still a better way to gauge exercise regardless of activity type, too.