I am 5'5" and have a 31" bike inseam and I ride a 52cm Trek 2.1 WSD and a Madone (H3) 5.2, also in 52 cm. Based on my experience with my Treks, I would think the 50 cm would be the best for you. When I purchased the Madone, my original fitting for size was on a Lexa (had in stock) since the Madone shared the same geometry.
P2