I've been commuting more regularly this fall and while Tucson isn't cold compared to much of the US, the morning temperatures can be in the 30's. I've figured out what works for me in temperatures down to the low 40's: jersey, arm warmers, windbreaker, shorts, knee warmers and wool socks, toe covers, long-fingered gloves with wool liners, a couple choices for keeping my head warm. I think I need to stick with layers because I may be riding home in 65-70 degrees in the afternoon and in just a jersey, shorts and maybe the windbreaker.

I rode one morning in the 30's and my fingers were just really cold. I swapped out the knee warmers for tights and wore a thermal long sleeved jersey and an extra shirt over it.

I'm looking at a variety of options - looking for suggestions from those of you who have to deal with colder temperatures more of the time.
I have a rain coat. I could wear wool sweaters... but definitely want to know about

1. Baselayer? Suggestions?
2. Insulated gloves? Recommendations? Split gloves or full fingered? I saw some split fingered gloves for sale today from Terry that said they go down to 30 degrees
3. Warmer jacket? Soft shell? I don't want to spend too much because really, I won't use it all that often... There's one for sale at Performance now (Women's Flurry III elite or something like that) for $79 that has an extra tail flap that can tuck up inside, seems warm. It seems to fit a little tight for a medium.
Anything I haven't thought of?

Suggestions appreciated.