USADA arbitration court has a pretty skewed record *against* the defending athletes, something like 2 to 50. With pretty much any shred of evidence that holds water against Lance, he'd be most likely taken down as guilty. Had this argument been held in a federal court, like Bonds and Clemens, he'd have a better chance of being acquitted on some technicality.
But instead, by just quitting the whole deal without admitting guilt and without having himself and his foundation dragged through the mud, he can get this:
"But I'll never think that Lance didn't win."
"LA will always be a 7x Tour Winner in my mind. No matter what they decide."
...which is probably a better outcome for him and LiveStrong.
He's had sponsorships and other sources of income, so losing the TdF money is probably not going to hurt much. Even if the official titles are stripped, people will always remember the 7 wins anyway. Regardless of did/didn't, won/lost, whatever, this was probably the least painful of his options at this point.
I'm not so much fascinated in the doping itself as with the fallout that happens afterwards. Landis? Destroyed. Basso? 2 year ban and back like nothing happened. Vinokurov? Serves his ban without admitting guilt, wins gold in the Olympics and is treated like a villain. Vaughters? Comes clean over Twitter and the NYtimes, now held as a hero and hope for the future of cycling. One pattern that seems to be true: if you say for years you didn't do it, then later say you did: THAT seems to piss off the most people. Everyone keeps wanting Lance to "just say it, just say you did it," but everything I've seen says that would be the WORST blow to Lance's image at this point, since he's been the most outspoken about his innocence. He probably knows that.
-- gnat! (who once raced on Claritin-D, there, I said it)
Windsor: 2010 S-Works Ruby
Pantysgawn: 2011 S-Works Stumpjumper 29er
Whiz!: 2013 S-Works Crux (Singlespeed)
Boucheron: 2009 S-Works Tricross
Haloumi: 2013 Tern P7i
Kraft: 2009 Singlecross
Gouda: 2005 Electra Betty
Roquefort: 1974 Stella SX-73