Forget about training for the the Tour. It sounds like it's not what you really want to be doing right now. Go out and enjoy riding 30 - 40 miles or whatever. You've got enough on your plate that you don't need the added challenge of training for a long ride. You're doing enough physically that you'll maintain your current fitness level. And don't feel guilty about not doing it.
Yeah, I do the mind game thing too. I'm supposed to be riding the Knoxville staff ride next weekend. 195 miles, 12,000 feet of climb, in one day. I don't feel ready for it, I'm kind of dreading it. I know I'm not in shape to finish it strong or maybe even at all. I was excited to see that rain was forecast for next weekend, so then I wouldn't have to do it. When they downgraded it to only partly cloudy, I was disappointed. That's not a good attitude to have.
Yesterday I decided to bag it. At first I felt kind of wimpy about it, but I'd rather be out on my new mountain bike right now on the weekends. And our weekends have been so packed lately and work kind of stinks. I'd like a little down time. It would take me at least 18 hours to finish the ride, if I pushed myself to do it and I'd be dead for the next few days after. It's just not worth it.
Sounds like you're in the same kind of place. There's always next year.
Veronica