This is only partly related to your question, but I wanted to mention that I think that testing can produce results that are fairly accurate. My experience:
I take a coached, power-based (with PowerTap) cycling class 2 times per week. We've had our threshold power tested roughly every 2 months, since September. My last one was Tuesday.
I also did an outdoor 12.1 mile time trial 2 weeks ago. This was a race, not just me out testing myself. My TT bike has a Powertap as well. Here's the results.
2/20 JFTT Avg watts = 191 avg hr = 165 time 35:38 Avg cadence 90
3/1 TP Test Avg watts = 193 avg hr = 168 time 20:00 Avg cadence 89
I would have expected the average on the JFTT to be a little bit lower given that it was nearly twice the time period. Not that I'm complaining, mind you. Maybe it's that no matter how hard you push yourself in a test, you just can't simulate how hard you really push in race conditions.



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