Well knowing all this I would advise you to order a small AND a medium in both the shak and the Carrie, and send back the ones you don't want.
I'm a little taller and 20 lbs heavier than you, and I take either the med or large in both- depending on if i want to wear them as an outer layer over things. I actually have a medium half zip shak that fits perfectly and I wear a large full zip shak over that, like a sweater set.
The Carrie is soft but is more jacket-like, due to the terrycloth-like wool material and the hood and the cut. The full zip shak can actually look great as either an outer cardigan or under stuff...it's a bit more sleek and form fitting than the Carrie, so it can be worn under things better without any bunching. Carrie has more practical pockets.




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It sucks, because I really, really liked the red one the best, too.
It says right on the label machine wash gentle cold, lay flat to dry. So maybe you could get a refund or a credit if you call Ibex?