Top of foot pain

I'm having some issues lately, sometimes it's one foot, sometimes the other. Seems to be tendon or muscle pain at the "point" on my first metatarsal. Not bothered more by putting weight on it, but hurts to bend my toe back (whether on the ground or in the air). It seems to bug me after looong runs.

I'm guessing it's probably my shoes, but can't figure out what about them causes it? And also curious - I have a half marathon Sunday. Would you buy a new pair of shoes (a model that you know worked in the past) and wear for the race, knowing that you'll have pain if you don't?

Could it be referred pain from a trigger point further up your leg? Here's a good website that shows pain referral patterns from trigger points. It's entirely possible that you've developed trigger points that you aren't aware of yet.

I guess it could be? Seems to match where the extensor hallucis longus pain coloring is.

But still, the only thing that has changed are my shoes. I'm now wearing essentially the same shoe for trail and road running and it might be just too much of the wrong fit. But I don't know what's "wrong" about it. Time for more googling, I guess!